Tuesday, January 01, 2008

"New Year’s Eve in Ames With Obama"

The Caucus (NY Times political blog):
Updated AMES, Iowa – Senator Barack Obama was running late and the meatballs were running out – neither of which seemed to matter when word spread through the crowd at his New Year’s Eve party here that he was leading by 7 points in the final Des Moines Register poll before Thursday’s caucuses.

“Here’s a reason to be really fired up: 32, 25, 24,” an announcer told the crowd, which erupted in wild applause. “Obama, Clinton, Edwards.”
Mr. Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucus goers, according to the poll in Tuesday’s edition of the Register, up from 28 percent in November. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton had 25 percent and former Senator John Edwards had 24 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Mr. Obama did not dwell on the poll results. But 22 minutes into his speech, he gleefully took note of them.

“It looks like it might be working,” he said, recounting the numbers to the crowd. “We might just pull this thing off, Iowa. Who woulda thunk it?”

Even before the poll results were known, more than 1,000 revelers chose to spend part of their New Year’s Eve here in the Great Hall of Iowa State University’s Memorial Union. Three cash bars are doing a booming business, drawing considerably more traffic than the Caucus Information Centers positioned around the room, where voters can find out the locations of their precincts for Thursday’s caucuses.

Silver stars are dangling from the ceiling. Large balloons are rising from the floor. An inflated, metallic “2008” hangs on the wall at the “Stand For Change New Year’s Eve Party.”

Before the program began, organizers reminded people why they were there and asked for a little help in the next three days – beginning on New Year’s Day.

“We’re going to start door-knocking at 10 a.m.,” a campaign organizer told the crowd. “Some people might be nursing hangovers, but that is OK.

As for those poll results, as we’re sitting here waiting for the program to begin, this email just arrived on our Blackberry from Eric Schultz, a spokesman for the Edwards campaign: “Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT.” Included in the list of reasons is the fact that the poll was taken during the holiday and over the weekend.

Update 11 p.m. (10 Iowa time) — Mr. Obama did not dwell on the poll results. But 22 minutes into his speech, he gleefully took note of the poll results.

“It looks like it might be working,” he said, recounting the numbers to the crowd. “We might just pull this thing off, Iowa. Who woulda thunk it?”

The Iowa Poll, conducted by The Register, is viewed as the most respected of all polls. Yet polling caucus goers is a perilous sport. Only three days until the real numbers are in.

Until then, Happy New Year from Ames.

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