"When a No-Win State is a Show-Down State"

TIME:

When the 2008 general election comes around, Texas will most likely remain red. But its capital Austin is the blue heart of this very crimson state and has been regarded as solid Clinton territory for campaign contributions and support. After all, this was where Bill and Hillary cut their political teeth as McGovern organizers. On Friday, however, U.S. Senator Barack Obama staked his claim.

This isn't about electoral votes. It is about money, convention delegates, more money, and proving who can best inspire a vital national Democratic constituency, Hispanic voters. So far, Hillary Clinton has appeared to be holding all the cards in Texas. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the Geffen flap, Obama has pulled up a chair at the poker table.

It seemed more rock concert than political rally as 20,000 Texans gathered Friday afternoon in that same downtown Austin park for what Obama's campaign dubbed a "Kick-Ass Rally." The crowd was predominately young, the music by Cyril Neville and Tribe 13 first-class funky, and the misty rain was infused with the occasional aroma of marijuana. Only the sea of signs with "Obama '08" gave the slightest hint that this was a political event. A favorite Obama theme is the government failures following Hurricane Katrina, so it was appropriate that Neville, a New Orleans evacuee who has settled in Austin, performed at the rally. But what was unconventional was Neville was the warm-up act. There were no local or state politicians to whip up the crowd. In fact, the only identifiable Texas politician spotted at the event was Constable Bruce Elfant, a popular local Democrat with longtime ties to student Democratic organizations.

In 1992, when Bill Clinton stood on the same ground, most of the members of the Obama crowd, including the head of the University of Texas Democratic Club, who made a brief welcoming speech, were in grade school. This rally evoked more recent Democratic politics. It had the same vibe as the Howard Deaniac gatherings in Austin coffeeshops and brewpubs during the 2004 presidential cycle. Obama volunteer Laura Stromberg, whose last political foray was as press secretary to musician/novelist Kinky Friedman during his unsuccessful Texas 2006 gubernatorial bid, said most of the people she had met within the Obama movement had been Howard Dean supporters.

But while Dean served up red-hot rhetoric, Obama's pitch is lower-key and longer. After a wild and enthusiastic welcome, the Senator settled into a laundry list of liberal Democratic issues — health care, the environment, better teacher pay, lower interest on student loans, broadband in the inner cities and, of course, an end to American involvement in Iraq. His criticisms of the war drew the loudest applause, his appeals to brotherhood and comity, his Martin Luther King quotes drew nods and smiles, but 35 minutes into his 40-minute speech, as he told a long story about a campaign trip to southern Illinois with U.S. Senator Dick Durbin, some of the crowd began to peel away

"I like the guy, but I don't think he is ready yet to be President," said Garry Mauro, a longtime Clinton Texas operative and former statewide officeholder. "People like Obama — he's the future, but that's the point." Mauro hosted a fundraiser for Obama in 2004 after the Senator captured the imagination of the Democratic National Convention. Now, Mauro is organizing a mid-March series of fundraisers for Hillary Clinton in South Texas and mixing his praise for Obama with Texas straight talk. Obama's presidential announcement was "amateurish," Mauro said. Worse, the Senator made a "horrible mistake" by not distancing himself from Hollywood producer David Geffen's characterizations of the Clintons as liars.

Not all Texas Democrats are riding in Hillary's train. Former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk has announced he is an enthusiastic Obama supporter. An unsuccessful candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2001, now a high-powered Dallas attorney, Kirk was part of the so-called multiracial dream ticket that failed to energize key Democratic base voters. "Ron helps Obama with the media, but he doesn't move votes, or move money," said Andy Hernandez, a San Antonio Democratic political operative and analyst.

Kirk's endorsement is part of what Hernandez calls the "visible primary" in this now extended presidential season. The media is focused on the visible primary, where Obama is making gains, but Hillary Clinton is still winning the "invisible primary" in Texas, he said.

"He's going to fire up voters here in Texas, but he's not going to derail her," Hernandez said. "Hispanic voters have always loved the Clintons." So far, no key African-American or Hispanic Texas officeholders or power brokers have moved publicly into the Obama camp.

Aside from a major meltdown or gaffe or some world-changing event, Hillary Clinton appears to be in good shape in Texas. There is one card Obama can play. Internet fundraising has fundamentally changed presidential politics, Mauro said. While Obama's stump speech may run a little too long, one section he is not likely to cut is his appeal for those Deaniac converts to organize on the Internet. He urged the crowd to give five or ten dollars and to tell their friends to go to barackobama.com and do the same.

"I want you to tell them: 'It's time for you to turn off the TV and stop playing Game Boy.... I don't want to have to raise money in Hollywood all the time," Obama told the crowd.